Iowa Poll Shows Trumps Lead Grows

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One week out from Iowa’s Republican presidential caucuses, Morning Consult surveys show Donald Trump is padding his already sizable lead in the Hawkeye State.

According to the latest surveys, conducted from Dec. 1, 2023, through Jan. 7, 2024, among 353 potential Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, 58% are backing Trump ahead of the Jan. 15 contest. 

Trump’s lead is up 8 points from his showing in November 2023, which puts him 43 points ahead of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who with 15% has pulled 1 point ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis’ support in Iowa has declined from 18% to 14% since November, compared with a 4-point increase for Haley. Another candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, saw his support fall from 13% to 10% in the latest survey tracking. Two other candidates, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, are polling at 2% and 1%, respectively.

The latest responses have an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 5 points.

What it means for 2024

These survey findings from Iowa go some way toward validating the conventional wisdom on the state of play heading into next week’s first-in-the-nation nominating contest: Trump looks primed to kick things off with a big victory, and a Haley surge may be coming at the perfect time to allow her to pull off a second-place finish.

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